Week 6 | January 2026 | Deep Dive
Huntington Ingalls hit 30% hull completion on ROMULUS in December. Singapore's Defence Science and Technology Agency signed an MOU with the Korean Register to develop verification frameworks for autonomous maritime systems. The US Navy's FY2026 budget request includes approximately $5.3 billion aggregated across autonomy programs, per senior Navy officials at June 2025 budget briefings.
The autonomous maritime buildout is happening right now. Not in five years. Now.
Four Navy unmanned vessels completed a five-month Pacific deployment from August 2023 to January 2024, logging 46,651 nautical miles across the International Date Line, the Equator, and through Japan and Australia, in what the Navy described as almost exclusively autonomous operation. Earlier, Ghost Fleet Overlord transits hit 98% autonomous operation over thousands of miles. Anduril delivered three Ghost Shark prototypes ahead of schedule and on budget. HII's Odyssey autonomy software runs on 35+ surface platforms and over 750 REMUS underwater vehicles deployed across 30 countries (company-reported figures).
The technology works. The Navy knows it works because it's been using it operationally for years.
So, what's uncertain? Which companies survive long enough to capture the commercial opportunity when regulations finally catch up? Which jurisdictions enable deployment first? And, will ocean materials operations exploit the infrastructure defense is building and how long will that take?
This is a landscape analysis for people making capital allocation decisions. Which companies have actual production contracts versus burning VC cash on impressive demonstrations that never translate to revenue? Which regulatory jurisdictions are moving fast? Which are paralyzed, waiting for international frameworks that won't arrive until 2032? And the kelp boat question from Week 4: when does autonomous monitoring technology proven on Navy ASW missions transfer to commercial aquaculture?
The answers to these questions matter if you're deciding where to deploy capital in ocean tech over the next 24 months.
Singapore Builds Infrastructure While America Debates Statutory Authority
On January 7-8, 2026, Singapore's Defence Science and Technology Agency (DSTA) signed an MOU with Korean Register. The focus: verification and validation frameworks for autonomous maritime systems, specifically AI-based perception algorithms for unmanned surface vessels.
Standards aren't bureaucracy. They're market gatekeepers. The country that develops credible verification methods first becomes the certification authority everyone else references. Norway did this in Europe starting in 2018 with autonomous ferry trials. The Yara Birkeland has completed 175+ autonomous cargo voyages since 2022, currently operating with reduced crew (down from 5 to 2-3) with fully unmanned operation targeted by 2028. Four additional autonomous ferries are under contract. Singapore is positioning itself to do the same thing for the Asia-Pacific.
Meanwhile, the US Coast Guard lacks statutory authority to waive crew requirements for commercial vessels. The Government Accountability Office made this explicit in August 2024 (GAO-24-107059): federal statutes mandate crew minimums by vessel tonnage, and the Coast Guard cannot grant exceptions outside a pilot program for SpaceX rocket recovery authorized by the 2022 Coast Guard Authorization Act. That's the only broad commercial statutory exception currently on the books; other experimental or government-owned operations exist, but they are not scalable commercial models. Absent Congressional action, every commercial operator wanting to deploy autonomous vessels at scale in US waters faces case-by-case evaluation by the local Captain of the Port with no standardized approval framework through 2032.
The timeline divergence is severe. Singapore and Norway are enabling operational commercial deployments in 2026-2028. US commercial operators can pursue narrow pilot programs and case-by-case approvals, but widespread, standardized deployment will likely track the 2032 harmonization date absent new legislation.
The IMO timeline locked in at MSC 110 in June 2025. Non-mandatory adoption of the MASS Code occurs in May 2026. Mandatory Code gets adopted on July 1, 2030. Entry into force is January 1, 2032. That's the international harmonization date.
Defense, of course, operates under sovereign immunity. Commercial operators wait seven years for standardized frameworks.
This regulatory split determines which companies win. US-focused startups betting on domestic commercial markets cannot build scalable business models on one-off waivers that vary by jurisdiction. Companies positioned for Singapore, Norway, or other permissive jurisdictions can deploy commercially by 2027-2028. Defense contracts remain the primary revenue source for US companies through the end of the decade.
That regulatory split determines which companies win. So who actually survives? Who has government contracts locked in today? Who's positioned for early commercial deployment in permissive jurisdictions? Who's burning cash waiting for US regulatory reform that Congress shows zero interest in addressing?"