Mine Warfare Is Building the ASW Tech Stack Nobody's Talking About

Week 8 | January 2026

Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force just took delivery of domestically developed small underwater unmanned vehicles for underwater defense. That's the official framing. The actual capability? Multi-aperture sonar, long-range acoustic communications, multi-vehicle control. Exactly the technology stack you need for anti-submarine warfare.

Meanwhile, companies like Forcys are selling mine countermeasure systems that happen to include all the same sensors, navigation, and C2 infrastructure required for ASW missions. The missions differ (finding mines versus tracking submarines) but the underlying tech is highly transferable. Because MCM procurement is less politically sensitive than ASW, it's moving faster.

AUKUS nations are betting on Ghost Shark and Dive-LD for undersea dominance. Ghost Shark moved from concept to first fleet delivery in roughly three years, with the first production unit rolling off Anduril's Sydney line in late 2025 ahead of schedule. But Japan, operating outside the AUKUS framework, just demonstrated parallel capability development. The question isn't whether autonomous systems will dominate undersea warfare. It's whether allies will field interoperable systems or fragmented architectures.

The sensor suites, navigation systems, and C2 architecture developed for MCM missions directly enable ASW operations. This isn't theoretical—it's happening in procurement right now.

Forcys, established in 2022 as the defense arm of Covelya Group, has rapidly assembled an MCM ecosystem targeting AUKUS Pillar 2 opportunities. The company leverages technology from five sister companies: Wavefront Systems provides Solstice multi-aperture sonar with 200-meter swath coverage, Sonardyne contributes SPRINT-Nav Mini navigation and underwater acoustic communications, Voyis supplies laser scanners and 4K imaging for target identification, EIVA provides remotely operated towed vehicle platforms, and Chelsea Technologies adds environmental sensors.

External partnerships extend capability. VideoRay's Mission Specialist Defender ROV handles mine neutralization. October 2024 MoUs with DRASS and Cubedin/SH Defence outline intent to integrate Italian LUUVs and modular containers, though public evidence of deployed systems remains limited. A November 2025 MoU with QinetiQ for deployable underwater ranges in Australia explicitly links to AUKUS Pillar 2 objectives.

Confirmed customers include the UK Royal Navy (containerised ROTV solutions with Sonardyne navigation), an unspecified NATO navy (L3Harris Iver4 900 AUV with Voyis/Wavefront payload delivered 2023), and South-East Asian and Middle Eastern navies operating Sentinel IDS sonar. Specific Forcys contract values aren't disclosed, though the broader Thales-led UK MCM modernization program has been valued at up to £100 million.

The dual-use reality: sonar designed to find one-meter mines at 200 meters can detect 100-meter submarines at longer ranges. C2 systems for coordinating mine disposal ROVs scale to coordinating distributed ASW search patterns. Navigation tech for operating in minefields—cluttered acoustic environments—works for tracking quiet submarines. MCM isn't a stepping stone to ASW. It's building the same infrastructure.

Japan is developing indigenous UUV capability on a timeline similar to AUKUS programs, creating both opportunity and risk for allied interoperability.

The technical gulf reveals strategic priorities. Japan's MHI OZZ-5 (a 4-meter, 950kg MCM UUV) has been operational since March 2023, with initial deliveries completed by end of 2024. Operating from Mogami-class frigates, it employs dual sonar combining Thales SAMDIS high-frequency synthetic aperture with NEC-manufactured low-frequency for detecting buried objects. Open sources indicate top speed of about 7 knots and endurance on the order of 9 hours, suitable for tactical MCM but limited compared to strategic platforms.

Australia's Ghost Shark represents a different capability class. Based on Anduril's Dive-XL design, it reportedly targets operating depths on the order of several thousand metres with multi-day endurance, consistent with long-range strategic missions, though detailed specifications remain undisclosed. Low-rate initial production commenced at Anduril's Sydney facility in late 2025, with the first Ghost Shark rolling off the line ahead of schedule and planned delivery to the Royal Australian Navy in January 2026 for sea acceptance testing. The program contract (A$1.7 billion for dozens of units) suggests rough order-of-magnitude unit costs around A$35-50 million.

Anduril's Dive-LD offers a more affordable AUKUS option at approximately $2.5 million per unit (roughly a tenth the cost of many legacy LDUUVs according to DefenseScoop). The 6.1-meter platform shares the Dive family's extreme depth capability. Reportedly selected for the Pentagon's Replicator Tranche 2 program in August 2024, Dive-LD's Rhode Island facility is targeting high-rate production from the late 2020s.

Japan's Long Endurance XLUUV (believed to be in roughly the 10-16 meter class) is undergoing testing at the ATLA IMETS facility in Yamaguchi Prefecture, but no public decision or date for transition to production has been announced. This conservative approach contrasts sharply with Ghost Shark's three-year concept-to-delivery timeline.

A 2024 AUKUS joint statement announced Japan would explore opportunities to improve interoperability of maritime autonomous systems (carefully avoiding language of membership or expansion). Japan's inaugural participation in an AUKUS Pillar II Maritime Big Play activity was announced in conjunction with Talisman Sabre 2025, focusing on autonomous maritime systems interoperability. Official Japanese statements remain cautious. During Prime Minister Kishida's April 2024 state visit, he stated: For Japan, to have a direct cooperation with AUKUS, nothing has been decided at this moment.

Think tank analysis varies. ASPI's Malcolm Davis recommends project-by-project cooperation rather than full membership, while Pacific Forum rates Japan as an optimal partner for Pillar II due to shipbuilding capacity. A consistent barrier: UK and Australian concerns about Japan's information security systems, though Japan's April 2024 security clearance legislation was designed to address this gap.

Every month of parallel development by AUKUS and Japan makes eventual interoperability harder. The technology is converging, but the standards aren't.

AUKUS is building toward standardization. Ghost Shark is designed with allied interoperability in mind. HII's REMUS integration with UK systems demonstrates launch/recovery standardization. The Maritime Innovation Challenge 2025 (focusing on undersea communications and C2 for autonomous systems teaming, with up to $8-9 million expected for 3-10 proposals) targets exactly these coordination gaps.

There is currently no public documentation indicating that OZZ-5 or other Japanese UUV programs are aligned explicitly with NATO's STANAG 4817 (the standard for multi-domain C2 of maritime unmanned systems). The January 2024 Japan-Australia bilateral research project on undersea wireless acoustic communication is developing evaluation indices rather than adopting NATO standards. This suggests Japan maintains a separate technical architecture.

The underwater communications gap is tangible. NEC's Long Distance Underwater Acoustic Communication Module demonstrated 2.5km two-way communication with an experimental UUV in January 2024, with JMSDF follow-on development beginning 2025. But technical specifications including data rate, frequencies, and power consumption remain undisclosed. Sonardyne's Wideband 2 (the system Forcys integrates) offers documented capabilities: 200-9,000 bps data rates across 14-34 kHz, tracking ranges up to 11,000 meters, and JANUS compatibility providing NATO interoperability protocol baseline. NEC's JANUS implementation status is unknown.

MHI's CoasTitan C2 system manages multi-domain autonomous assets including UAVs, USVs, and UUVs (demonstrated on OZZ-5 and the Whale USV). It appears to be a proprietary architecture, and there is no public evidence yet of native interoperability with NATO STANAG-based or emerging AUKUS-wide common control systems. The announced Maritime Big Play exercises at Talisman Sabre 2025 (which will demonstrate remote control of each other's unmanned systems) suggest practical interoperability testing is underway, but whether CoasTitan specifically participated and what bridging solutions were used remains undisclosed.

The UK-France Maritime Mine Countermeasures program provides a template. Worth €430 million with deliveries to France in December 2024 and the UK in March 2025, the program demonstrates interoperability through common system architecture, centralized contract management, and modular open architecture enabling integration of varied unmanned systems. The program took 13 years from concept to delivery (a pace incompatible with current threat environments) but proving that allied MCM standardization is achievable.

For defense analysts: The Indo-Pacific autonomous undersea competition isn't AUKUS versus China. It's AUKUS plus Japan (uncoordinated) versus China. Every ally developing independent capability without shared standards creates force design risk. MCM procurement is accelerating ASW tech development faster than dedicated ASW programs because the political barriers are lower.

For defense contractors: The Japan market requires a separate strategy from AUKUS procurement. Technology transfer opportunities exist. Forcys demonstrates the integration model. But Japan prioritizes indigenous development. Companies serving both markets face divergent standards requirements. The July 2025 HII-Hitachi multi-year production agreement for REMUS 300 small UUVs shows direct technology transfer is happening, but positions Japan as AUKUS-adjacent rather than AUKUS-integrated.

For climate investors tracking ocean materials: The same autonomous navigation, sonar, and C2 systems being developed for MCM/ASW will eventually enable commercial ocean operations. Japan's investment in underwater acoustic comms directly benefits kelp farming monitoring infrastructure. Defense R&D is subsidizing commercial ocean autonomy. But fragmented standards mean commercial operators face integration challenges when the tech transfers.

For policy advisors: The AUKUS-plus-one question needs answering. Expand the framework or accept parallel development? The interoperability gap widens monthly. China's September 2025 parade debut of HSU100 and AJX002 XLUUVs (platforms analysts assess as larger than US Orca) signals accelerating operational timelines. Open-source analysis identifies dozens of Chinese universities and over a hundred research projects tied to autonomous undersea systems, underscoring program scale.

Japan just proved you don't need AUKUS to build autonomous undersea capability. The question is whether allies realize they need Japan before it's too late.

Next week we shift to EU regulatory frameworks forcing the ocean materials transition. Defense contractors face binding sustainability mandates, and the procurement pressure is real. We'll examine which regulations have teeth, which companies are positioned to benefit, and where the compliance gaps create market opportunity.

Since you have been, thanks for reading.

Cheers,

Mick